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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:09) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model