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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model