Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 95

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(13:19) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to CIN 46, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -3.69 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.15 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model