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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(14:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to CIN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.06 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.25 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP