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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to MIN 8, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-C.Beebe to MIN 21 for 13 yards (87-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.65 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model