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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 73

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to MIN 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-C.Beebe to MIN 23 for 8 yards (98-M.Crosby).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model