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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 44

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Minnesota Vikings 31

What Actually Happened

(12:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to MIN 38 for 6 yards (22-H.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model