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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 39

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 75-B.Parker reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to MIN 39 for no gain (54-E.Kendricks; 99-D.Hunter).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model