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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 28-J.Jacobs left end pushed ob at MIN 48 for 18 yards (41-A.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model