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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to MIN 8, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-C.Beebe.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.77 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model