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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 19

New England Patriots 20 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.64 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model