Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 63

New England Patriots 20 – New York Jets 0

(13:16) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.26 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model