Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 59

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 20

(2:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to NE 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 15 for no gain (47-A.McClellan, 87-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.27 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model