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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 49

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.26 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model