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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 58

New England Patriots 20 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.78 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model