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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 23 for no gain (15-J.Bellamy).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.47 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP