Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 68

New England Patriots 20 – New York Jets 0

(10:08) 7-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to NYJ 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.84 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model