Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 78

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 20

(11:41) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to NE 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 37 for 13 yards (84-R.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model