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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – New York Giants 25

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 9-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.87 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP