Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – New York Giants 25

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to NYG 26, Center-97-Z.Triner. 80-T.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 26. 80-T.Jones to NYG 39 for 13 yards (44-D.Ogunbowale).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model