4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – New York Giants 18

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.09 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP