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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 34

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) 9-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.44 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model