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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 25-P.Barber left guard to NYG 38 for 3 yards (59-L.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.71 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.76 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model