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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 33 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to SEA 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 18 for 8 yards (27-D.Washington).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.86 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -1.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 26, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP