4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 14 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(9:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 17-M.Turner. Seattle challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 09:41.)

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.40 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 30, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model