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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(13:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 22-C.Prosise pushed ob at NO 13 for 21 yards (43-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.75 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model