Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to NO 31, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Harris MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-57-C.Barton at NO 33. 57-C.Barton to NO 33 for no gain (11-D.Harris). PENALTY on SEA, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model