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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 85

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to NO 47, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Harris for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 43, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model