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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 41

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right guard to NO 42 for -1 yards (56-D.Davis, 94-C.Jordan).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.30 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -1.58 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model