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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to SEA 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.01 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP