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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to NO 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Harris to NO 20 for no gain (28-U.Amadi).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.19 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 36, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP