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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 40

Miami Dolphins 6 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Shotgun) 32-K.Drake up the middle to DAL 39 for 1 yard (56-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.90 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP