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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 51

Miami Dolphins 6 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(7:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 18-P.Williams pushed ob at DAL 43 for 8 yards (30-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model