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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 71

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to MIA 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 23, ball out of bounds at MIA 23.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 29, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP