Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 6 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(9:10) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 62 yards to DAL 11, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-C.Wilson to DAL 24 for 13 yards (81-D.Smythe, 49-S.Eguavoen). Injury update: Jomal Wiltz of Miami has a groin injury. His return is questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.54 EP
77% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model