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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(13:58) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to DAL 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model