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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 3

Miami Dolphins 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP