Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Detroit Lions 27

(:49) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.89 EP
73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -1.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP