Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Detroit Lions 27

(2:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles up the middle to PHI 28 for 6 yards (42-D.Kennard).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.62 EP