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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 40

Detroit Lions 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.18 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP