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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 10 at the 48
Detroit Lions 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 17
What Actually Happened
(11:38) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.90 EP
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.07 EP
- 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
KICK
-1.42 EP
- 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
- 69% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT
-0.78 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
