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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to DET 2, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.08 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model