Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 69

Detroit Lions 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(12:23) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to PHI 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.29 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model