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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 4-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.49 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model