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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to CIN 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP