Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 57

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BUF 16, Center-46-C.Harris. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 28 for 12 yards (52-P.Brown). Return credited to BUF 16 (penalty incurred during kick). PENALTY on BUF-41-M.Alexander, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at BUF 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.81 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model