4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 11 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.45 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model