Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 86

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Buffalo Bills 11

(5:16) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to CIN 44, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-34-S.Perine.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.54 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model