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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 8 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model