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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to CIN 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 37 for 4 yards (51-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model